Will Disarm Step Up in the Stephen Foster? (2024)

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By J. Keeler Johnson ("Keelerman") Twitter: @J_Keelerman

A strong field has turnedout for Saturday's $1 million Stephen Foster (G1) at Churchill Downs. Ninehorses have entered the 1 1/8-mile contest, including eight graded stakeswinners and another who has placed at the Grade 1 level. Don't be surprised ifone or more of these runners wind up in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) orBreeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) later this year.

It's tempting to side with morningline favorite #2 First Mission (6-5),who delivered a resounding victory in the 1 1/16-mile Alysheba (G2) atChurchill Downs last time out. After rating in third place behind a runaway leader,First Mission advanced steadily and burst clear in the final furlong to win byfour lengths, earning a career-best 106 Beyer Speed Figure. That improvednicely upon the 100 he posted two starts back when dominating the Essex Handicap(G3) by five lengths.

#9 Skippylongstocking (5-2)is another compelling contender. If you draw a line through his no-show in thePegasus World Cup (G1), in which he pulled up after fading from a pace-trackingposition, his recent form lines are rock-solid. He won the Charles Town Classic(G2) and finished third in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) last fall, andsince the Pegasus he's posted sharp victories in the Challenger (G3) andOaklawn H. (G2). In the latter race, he defeated next-out Blame (G3) winnerHighland Falls by two lengths while earning a 107 Beyer.

But I'm going to think alittle bit outside the box and make #4Disarm (6-1) my top choice. While he's not as accomplished as the twofavorites, I believe this four-year-old son of Gun Runner has lots of upsidefor Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen.

Disarm ranked among the bestthree-year-olds of 2023. While he only visited the winner's circle once, takingthe Matt Winn (G3) by half a length over next-out Indiana Derby (G3) winner Verifying,he snagged top-four finishes in the Kentucky Derby (G1), Travers (G1),Louisiana Derby (G2), Lexington (G3), and Jim Dandy (G2). His Travers effortwas particularly sharp, as he closed ground nicely to finish second by onelength against Belmont (G1) winner and champion three-year-old male Arcangelo.Among Disarm's beaten rivals were Blue Grass (G1) winner Tapit Trice, championForte, Preakness (G1) hero National Treasure, and Kentucky Derby (G1) winnerMage.

Disarm took time offfollowing the Travers and only recently returned to action in a 1 1/16-milemaiden special weight at Churchill Downs, which he won by 1 1/2 lengths with anunremarkable 85 Beyer. But his slow final time of 1:45.88 can be blamed on thesnail-like pace. In a four-horse field, Disarm was allowed to set incrediblyslow fractions of :25.74, :52.01, and 1:16.49 before blazing his fourthquarter-mile in :23.49 and his final sixteenth in :05.90. Clearly he was fullof run and had a lot left in the tank; if he'd rationed out his speed moreeffectively, he could have posted a faster final time.

As a three-year-old, Disarmposted Beyers in the 100-103 range on four occasions. If we project improvementas a four-year-old, then Disarm fits well against First Mission andSkippylongstocking. Facing a larger field with more pace in the Stephen Foster shouldallow Disarm to revert to the midpack closing tactics he employed as a sophom*oreand fire a big effort. I'm willing to bet his best run will be sufficient towin the Stephen Foster at enticing odds.